We implement several Bayesian and classical models to forecast employment for eight sectors of the US economy. In addition to standard vector-autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, we also include the information content of 143 additional monthly series in some models. Several approaches exist for incorporating information from a large number of series. We consider two approa...

This article compares the accuracy of vector autoregressive (VAR), restricted vector autoregressive (RVAR), Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR), vector error correction (VEC) and Bayesian vector error correction (BVEC) models in forecasting the exchange rates for ve Central and Eastern European currencies (Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Slovak Koruna and Slovenian Tolar) agains...

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models assume linearity between the endogenous variables and their lags. This assumption might be overly restrictive could have a deleterious impact on forecasting accuracy. As solution we propose combining VAR with Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) models. The resulting vector (BAVART) model is capable of capturing arbitrary nonlinear relations covariates wit...

there are different ideas and opinions about the effects of macroeconomic variables on real and nominal variables. to answer the question of whether changes in macroeconomic variables as a political tool is useful over a business cycle, understanding the effect of macroeconomic variables on economic growth is important. in the present study, the bayesian vector autoregresive model and seasonali...